Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal (Based on Two Months of 2019/20)

Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal

(Based on Two Month’s Data Ending Mid-September, 2020/21)

Recovery of the Economies from COVID-19

COVID-19 has created an unprecedented crisis in the world economies resulting into a collapse of economic activities. According to the projections made by IMF, the world output is projected to decline by 4.4 percent in 2020. All the regional economies are expected to contract: the hardest-hit  are the Advanced Economies, European Union and Latin America.

In 2020, 167 economies are projected to face contraction in economic activities. Among  them, 102 economies are expected to face a contraction of more than 5 percent. The following table shows the projected growth rate for the economies in 2020.  

Country	Growth in 2020	Country	Growth in 2020
Libya	-66.65	Solomon Islands	-4.99
Macao SAR	-52.28	Islamic Republic of Iran	-4.99
Lebanon	-25.00	Turkey	-4.99
Venezuela	-25.00	Bahrain	-4.91
Fiji	-21.00	Zambia	-4.83
Aruba	-19.70	Romania	-4.80
St. Kitts and Nevis	-18.65	Lesotho	-4.80
Maldives	-18.56	Sweden	-4.72
Antigua and Barbuda	-17.27	Sri Lanka	-4.55
St. Lucia	-16.90	Denmark	-4.50
Belize	-16.00	Marshall Islands	-4.50
The Bahamas	-14.78	Moldova	-4.50
Mauritius	-14.20	Uruguay	-4.50
Peru	-13.94	Qatar	-4.48
Seychelles	-13.78	Armenia	-4.46
Suriname	-13.08	Nigeria	-4.28
Spain	-12.83	United States	-4.27
Iraq	-12.06	Australia	-4.16
Kyrgyz Republic	-12.02	Russia	-4.12
Montenegro	-12.00	Azerbaijan	-4.03
West Bank and Gaza	-11.98	Angola	-4.01
Argentina	-11.78	Bulgaria	-4.00
Grenada	-11.78	Haiti	-4.00
Barbados	-11.60	Paraguay	-4.00
Palau	-11.40	Finland	-3.98
Ecuador	-11.00	Micronesia	-3.78
San Marino	-11.00	Poland	-3.56
Italy	-10.65	Eswatini	-3.47
Zimbabwe	-10.38	Papua New Guinea	-3.28
India	-10.29	Burundi	-3.24
Oman	-10.00	Mauritania	-3.23
Portugal	-10.00	Madagascar	-3.16
United Kingdom	-9.76	Sierra Leone	-3.09
France	-9.76	Liberia	-3.01
Botswana	-9.63	Ireland	-3.00
Greece	-9.50	Belarus	-2.99
Croatia	-9.00	Guinea-Bissau	-2.90
Panama	-9.00	Norway	-2.83
El Salvador	-8.98	Cameroon	-2.77
Mexico	-8.95	Cambodia	-2.76
Dominica	-8.78	Kazakhstan	-2.69
Jamaica	-8.56	Gabon	-2.67
Sudan	-8.38	Tonga	-2.54
Vanuatu	-8.29	Serbia	-2.47
Belgium	-8.26	Democratic Republic of the Congo	-2.15
Philippines	-8.26	Burkina Faso	-2.03
Colombia	-8.18	Guatemala	-2.00
Kuwait	-8.08	Mongolia	-2.00
South Africa	-8.00	Mali	-1.98
Malta	-7.92	Korea	-1.88
Bolivia	-7.90	Lithuania	-1.84
Albania	-7.53	Comoros	-1.82
Kosovo	-7.50	The Gambia	-1.80
Puerto Rico	-7.50	Somalia	-1.50
Hong Kong SAR	-7.47	Indonesia	-1.50
Ukraine	-7.20	Kiribati	-1.10
Iceland	-7.15	Djibouti	-1.00
Thailand	-7.15	Central African Republic	-0.96
Canada	-7.14	Senegal	-0.69
Slovak Republic	-7.09	Chad	-0.67
Tunisia	-7.04	Eritrea	-0.63
Republic of Congo	-7.00	Tuvalu	-0.52
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	-6.99	Mozambique	-0.50
Morocco	-6.97	Pakistan	-0.39
Timor-Leste	-6.80	Uganda	-0.29
Cabo Verde	-6.77	Togo	0.00
Austria	-6.72	Nepal	0.02
Slovenia	-6.70	Taiwan Province of China	0.05
United Arab Emirates	-6.57	Brunei Darussalam	0.10
Honduras	-6.55	Lao P.D.R.	0.20
Bosnia and Herzegovina	-6.50	Niger	0.50
São Tomé and Príncipe	-6.50	Bhutan	0.57
Czech Republic	-6.50	Malawi	0.60
Cyprus	-6.44	Uzbekistan	0.70
Hungary	-6.10	Nauru	0.71
New Zealand	-6.07	Ghana	0.93
Equatorial Guinea	-6.02	Tajikistan	1.00
Chile	-6.00	Kenya	1.05
Singapore	-6.00	Guinea	1.45
Latvia	-6.00	Vietnam	1.60
Malaysia	-6.00	Turkmenistan	1.78
Dominican Republic	-5.99	Côte d'Ivoire	1.80
Germany	-5.98	China	1.85
Israel	-5.89	Tanzania	1.90
Namibia	-5.86	Ethiopia	1.95
Brazil	-5.80	Rwanda	1.99
Luxembourg	-5.80	Myanmar	1.99
Trinidad and Tobago	-5.65	Benin	2.00
Nicaragua	-5.54	Egypt	3.55
Costa Rica	-5.50	Bangladesh	3.80
Algeria	-5.46	South Sudan	4.11
Saudi Arabia	-5.44	Guyana	26.21
Netherlands	-5.40
North Macedonia	-5.40
Switzerland	-5.30
Japan	-5.27
Estonia	-5.20
Jordan	-5.00
Afghanistan	-5.00
Georgia	-5.00
Yemen	-5.00
Samoa	-5.00

  Source : IMF , October 2020

In South Asia, Afghanistan, India, Maldives, Pakistan and Sri-Lanka are projected to contract while Nepal and Bhutan are expected to maintain the 2019 level. The only economy in South Asia that is projected to achieve a growth of 3.8 percent is Bangladesh.

The recovery of the economies seems to be broadly V shaped. In 2021, 133 economies will remain below the pre-COVID level of output (2019) while in 2022, 65 economies will fail to reach the pre-Covid level of output. The number of economies failing to achieve the Pre-COVID level of output has been projected to be 32 and 18.

                      Source : IMF

A glimpse of the economies has been provided below. The economies highlighted in Red are those failing to achieve Pre-Covid output.

Country	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Afghanistan	100	95.0	98.8	103.3	107.9	112.2
Albania	100	92.5	98.1	103.8	108.3	112.0
Algeria	100	94.5	97.5	100.0	101.2	102.2
Angola	100	96.0	99.1	102.0	106.1	110.1
Antigua and Barbuda	100	82.7	86.6	96.2	104.1	108.3
Argentina	100	88.2	92.5	94.9	97.0	99.1
Armenia	100	95.5	98.9	103.9	109.0	114.1
Aruba	100	80.3	87.5	91.5	92.8	94.0
Australia	100	95.8	98.7	101.4	104.0	106.8
Austria	100	93.3	97.6	99.7	101.6	103.4
Azerbaijan	100	96.0	97.9	99.4	101.1	102.8
The Bahamas	100	85.2	89.1	94.1	97.9	100.0
Bahrain	100	95.1	97.2	100.0	102.8	105.9
Bangladesh	100	103.8	108.4	117.0	125.5	134.7
Barbados	100	88.4	94.9	98.7	100.5	102.3
Belarus	100	97.0	99.1	101.1	102.0	102.7
Belgium	100	91.7	96.6	99.2	101.4	103.1
Belize	100	84.0	90.7	95.3	98.1	100.1
Benin	100	102.0	107.1	114.6	122.6	131.2
Bhutan	100	100.6	100.1	105.9	113.3	122.5
Bolivia	100	92.1	97.3	101.4	105.5	109.4
Bosnia and Herzegovina	100	93.5	98.2	102.1	105.7	109.4
Botswana	100	90.4	98.2	102.5	106.7	111.0
Brazil	100	94.2	96.9	99.1	101.3	103.5
Brunei Darussalam	100	100.1	103.4	107.2	109.6	111.8
Bulgaria	100	96.0	99.9	103.6	106.9	110.3
Burkina Faso	100	98.0	101.8	107.4	113.4	119.7
Burundi	100	96.8	99.8	101.8	104.0	106.4
Cabo Verde	100	93.2	97.4	102.1	107.9	114.4
Cambodia	100	97.2	103.8	111.4	119.6	128.4
Cameroon	100	97.2	100.6	104.9	109.9	115.9
Canada	100	92.9	97.7	101.0	103.4	105.3
Central African Republic	100	99.0	102.0	107.1	112.5	118.1
Chad	100	99.3	105.4	110.5	114.8	119.1
Chile	100	94.0	98.2	101.4	104.4	107.2
China	100	101.9	110.2	116.6	123.3	130.3
Colombia	100	91.8	95.5	99.0	102.8	106.8
Comoros	100	98.2	101.0	104.9	109.1	113.5
Democratic Republic of the Congo	100	97.9	101.4	105.9	110.4	115.7
Republic of Congo	100	93.0	92.2	94.0	96.5	98.0
Costa Rica	100	94.5	96.7	100.0	103.0	106.1
Côte d'Ivoire	100	101.8	108.1	115.1	122.6	130.6
Croatia	100	91.0	96.5	100.7	104.2	107.4
Cyprus	100	93.6	98.0	101.6	105.1	108.0
Czech Republic	100	93.5	98.3	102.5	106.6	109.8
Denmark	100	95.5	98.8	101.3	103.4	105.2
Djibouti	100	99.0	105.9	112.8	120.1	127.4
Dominica	100	91.2	94.2	97.2	100.2	101.9
Dominican Republic	100	94.0	97.8	102.6	107.8	113.1
Ecuador	100	89.0	93.2	94.4	96.0	98.0
Egypt	100	103.5	106.4	111.7	117.6	123.8
El Salvador	100	91.0	94.7	97.7	100.5	103.0
Equatorial Guinea	100	94.0	96.0	91.5	90.3	88.8
Eritrea	100	99.4	105.1	109.0	113.2	117.7
Estonia	100	94.8	99.1	102.7	106.0	109.2
Eswatini	100	96.5	97.9	98.7	99.7	101.6
Ethiopia	100	101.9	101.9	111.0	120.8	131.2
Fiji	100	79.0	88.1	95.6	100.4	104.4
Finland	100	96.0	99.5	101.4	103.2	104.5
France	100	90.2	95.7	98.4	100.7	102.6
Gabon	100	97.3	99.4	103.3	107.6	112.5
The Gambia	100	98.2	104.1	111.2	119.0	126.7
Georgia	100	95.0	99.7	105.7	111.9	118.0
Germany	100	94.0	98.0	101.0	102.8	104.1
Ghana	100	100.9	105.2	109.5	117.6	123.0
Greece	100	90.5	94.2	99.5	103.2	105.7
Grenada	100	88.2	90.9	95.6	100.4	103.8
Guatemala	100	98.0	101.9	105.7	109.4	112.9
Guinea	100	101.4	108.2	115.8	121.8	127.9
Guinea-Bissau	100	97.1	100.0	104.0	109.2	114.7
Guyana	100	126.2	136.5	176.7	216.1	220.7
Haiti	100	96.0	97.2	98.1	99.2	100.4
Honduras	100	93.5	98.1	101.3	104.8	108.6
Hong Kong SAR	100	92.5	95.9	99.2	102.0	104.8
Hungary	100	93.9	97.6	101.5	105.3	108.7
Iceland	100	92.8	96.7	99.3	100.9	102.8
India	100	89.7	97.6	105.4	113.4	121.9
Indonesia	100	98.5	104.5	110.1	115.8	121.6
Islamic Republic of Iran	100	95.0	98.0	99.5	101.0	102.2
Iraq	100	87.9	90.2	93.0	97.7	99.0
Ireland	100	97.0	101.8	106.1	109.9	113.0
Israel	100	94.1	98.7	103.2	107.9	112.4
Italy	100	89.4	94.0	96.5	98.1	99.0
Jamaica	100	91.4	94.8	98.3	101.2	103.7
Japan	100	94.7	96.9	98.5	99.7	100.7
Jordan	100	95.0	98.2	101.1	104.1	107.5
Kazakhstan	100	97.3	100.3	104.5	110.5	114.0
Kenya	100	101.0	105.8	112.2	118.7	125.5
Kiribati	100	98.9	101.8	103.8	105.7	107.6
Korea	100	98.1	100.9	104.1	107.1	109.9
Kosovo	100	92.5	98.1	101.7	105.5	109.7
Kuwait	100	91.9	92.5	95.5	97.8	100.2
Kyrgyz Republic	100	88.0	96.6	104.2	110.9	115.5
Lao P.D.R.	100	100.2	105.0	110.9	117.4	124.2
Latvia	100	94.0	98.9	103.9	109.0	112.8
Lesotho	100	95.2	98.9	103.1	106.9	108.7
Liberia	100	97.0	100.1	104.2	109.3	115.1
Libya	100	33.3	58.7	90.9	99.2	99.5
Lithuania	100	98.2	102.1	106.0	109.4	111.9
Luxembourg	100	94.2	99.7	103.5	106.7	109.4
Macao SAR	100	47.7	59.1	76.8	96.1	104.0
Madagascar	100	96.8	99.9	104.7	110.2	115.9
Malawi	100	100.6	103.1	109.8	117.0	124.3
Malaysia	100	94.0	101.3	107.4	113.5	119.6
Maldives	100	81.4	91.8	101.9	109.5	116.9
Mali	100	98.0	101.9	108.1	113.5	119.1
Malta	100	92.1	96.5	101.9	106.6	111.4
Marshall Islands	100	95.5	94.6	98.0	100.2	102.2
Mauritania	100	96.8	98.7	102.9	109.1	114.8
Mauritius	100	85.8	94.3	100.4	104.6	108.3
Mexico	100	91.0	94.3	96.4	98.5	100.5
Micronesia	100	96.2	97.4	97.9	98.5	99.1
Moldova	100	95.5	99.4	103.4	107.7	112.3
Mongolia	100	98.0	103.9	109.6	115.1	120.8
Montenegro	100	88.0	92.8	96.7	99.7	102.7
Morocco	100	93.0	97.6	101.1	104.8	108.6
Mozambique	100	99.5	101.6	106.4	115.5	128.3
Myanmar	100	102.0	107.8	114.5	121.8	129.6
Namibia	100	94.1	97.4	100.9	104.1	106.8
Nauru	100	100.7	102.0	102.9	103.7	104.3
Nepal	100	100.0	102.5	108.6	114.3	120.1
Netherlands	100	94.6	98.4	100.4	102.1	103.7
New Zealand	100	93.9	98.0	100.6	103.1	105.7
Nicaragua	100	94.5	94.0	96.5	98.5	100.2
Niger	100	100.5	107.4	121.2	135.0	143.9
Nigeria	100	95.7	97.3	99.8	102.3	104.9
North Macedonia	100	94.6	99.8	104.3	108.5	112.6
Norway	100	97.2	100.6	103.6	106.0	108.0
Oman	100	90.0	89.5	99.4	102.9	106.5
Pakistan	100	99.6	100.6	104.7	109.4	114.9
Palau	100	88.6	82.0	90.5	101.3	103.1
Panama	100	91.0	94.6	99.4	104.3	109.6
Papua New Guinea	100	96.7	97.9	100.7	103.7	106.6
Paraguay	100	96.0	101.3	106.3	110.8	115.4
Peru	100	86.1	92.3	96.9	101.7	105.7
Philippines	100	91.7	98.5	104.9	111.7	118.9
Poland	100	96.4	100.9	105.4	109.3	112.5
Portugal	100	90.0	95.8	100.4	103.4	105.4
Puerto Rico	100	92.5	93.9	94.5	94.5	94.3
Qatar	100	95.5	97.9	101.7	103.8	106.4
Romania	100	95.2	99.6	103.4	107.3	111.2
Russia	100	95.9	98.6	100.9	103.1	105.2
Rwanda	100	102.0	108.4	117.1	127.1	136.1
Samoa	100	95.0	93.6	96.0	98.1	100.3
San Marino	100	89.0	94.0	96.8	98.2	98.8
São Tomé and Príncipe	100	93.5	96.3	101.6	106.2	111.0
Saudi Arabia	100	94.6	97.5	100.9	103.4	106.1
Senegal	100	99.3	104.5	110.8	124.6	134.7
Serbia	100	97.5	102.9	109.1	114.0	118.6
Seychelles	100	86.2	89.8	94.8	99.4	103.5
Sierra Leone	100	96.9	99.6	103.8	108.5	113.4
Singapore	100	94.0	98.7	101.2	103.9	106.5
Slovak Republic	100	92.9	99.3	104.1	108.0	111.0
Slovenia	100	93.3	98.2	101.5	104.4	107.2
Solomon Islands	100	95.0	99.2	103.1	107.0	110.3
Somalia	100	98.5	101.4	104.6	108.2	112.0
South Africa	100	92.0	94.8	96.2	97.7	99.8
South Sudan	100	104.1	101.7	102.6	105.7	111.5
Spain	100	87.2	93.4	97.6	100.9	103.6
Sri Lanka	100	95.4	100.5	105.5	110.4	115.5
St. Kitts and Nevis	100	81.4	87.9	93.3	97.7	100.3
St. Lucia	100	83.1	89.1	94.4	98.7	100.5
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	100	93.0	96.4	99.9	103.5	106.3
Sudan	100	91.6	92.3	93.6	96.1	99.6
Suriname	100	86.9	88.2	90.0	92.5	95.2
Sweden	100	95.3	98.6	101.5	103.9	106.0
Switzerland	100	94.7	98.1	100.1	101.6	103.5
Taiwan Province of China	100	100.0	103.3	105.5	107.7	109.9
Tajikistan	100	101.0	107.1	111.9	116.4	121.0
Tanzania	100	101.9	105.6	112.0	119.3	127.1
Thailand	100	92.9	96.6	100.9	105.2	109.7
Timor-Leste	100	93.2	96.9	101.6	104.0	106.7
Togo	100	100.0	103.0	107.6	113.0	119.2
Tonga	100	97.5	94.0	97.8	100.7	103.2
Trinidad and Tobago	100	94.4	96.8	100.9	102.7	104.3
Tunisia	100	93.0	96.6	99.4	102.3	105.3
Turkey	100	95.0	99.8	103.8	107.4	111.2
Turkmenistan	100	101.8	106.5	111.5	116.9	122.6
Tuvalu	100	99.5	102.5	106.2	109.5	112.8
Uganda	100	99.7	104.6	110.4	117.0	125.9
Ukraine	100	92.8	95.6	98.6	102.0	105.9
United Arab Emirates	100	93.4	94.7	96.8	99.3	101.8
United Kingdom	100	90.2	95.6	98.6	100.4	102.2
United States	100	95.7	98.7	101.6	103.9	105.8
Uruguay	100	95.5	99.6	102.1	105.0	107.7
Uzbekistan	100	100.7	105.7	112.1	118.2	124.7
Vanuatu	100	91.7	95.6	99.4	102.7	105.9
Venezuela	100	75.0	67.5	64.1	64.0	64.0
Vietnam	100	101.6	108.4	116.5	124.9	133.6
West Bank and Gaza	100	88.0	95.2	100.0	102.1	104.1
Yemen	100	95.0	95.5	97.9	104.4	111.1
Zambia	100	95.2	95.7	96.7	97.9	99.1
Zimbabwe	100	89.6	93.3	95.7	97.7	99.8