२०७७ कात्तिकमा वार्षिक बिन्दुगत उपभोक्ता मुद्रास्फीति ४.०५ प्रतिशत रहेको छ ।
तरकारी उपसमुहको मूल्यवृद्धि २०.८८ प्रतिशत र दाल तथा गेडागुडीउपसमुहको मूल्यवृद्धि १३.७० प्रतिशत रहेको छ।
कुल वस्तु निर्यात १०.८ प्रतिशतले वृद्धि भई रु.४० अर्ब २०करोड पुगेको छ ।
कुल वस्तु आयात १०.६ प्रतिशतले घटेर रु.४०२ अर्ब ४९करोड कायम भएको छ ।
कुल वस्तु व्यापार घाटा १२.५ प्रतिशतले घटी रु.३६२ अर्ब २९करोड कायम भएको छ ।
खुद सेवा आय रु.१५ अर्ब ६४ करोडले घाटामा रहेको छ ।
विप्रेषण आप्रवाह ११.२ प्रतिशतले वृद्धि भई रु.३३७ अर्ब ७२ करोड पुगेको छ ।
वैदेशिक रोजगारीका लागि अन्तिम श्रम स्वीकृति लिने नेपालीको संख्या ७५.८ प्रतिशतले कमी आएको छ ।
चालु खाता रु.२० अर्ब ४६ करोडले बचतमा रहेको छ ।
शोधनान्तर स्थिति रु.११० अर्ब ६५ करोडले बचतमा रहेको छ ।
कुल विदेशी विनिमय सञ्चिति ७.४ प्रतिशतले वृद्धि भई २०७७ कात्तिक मसान्तमा रु.१५०६ अर्ब ६ करोड पुगेको छ ।
बैकिङ्ग क्षेत्रसँग रहेको विदेशी विनिमय सञ्चिति १५.४ महिनाको वस्तु आयात र १४.० महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न पर्याप्त रहने देखिन्छ ।
बैंकिङ्ग कारोबारमा आधारित सरकारको वित्त स्थिति रु.१०अर्ब २३ करोडले घाटामा रहेको छ ।
संघीय सरकारको कुल खर्च रु.२५०अर्ब ४१ करोड रहेको छ ।
बैंकिङ्ग कारोबारमा आधारित राजस्व संकलन रु.२४०अर्ब १५करोड रहेकोे छ ।
सरकारका विभिन्न खातामा रु.२२०अर्ब ९८करोड नगद मौज्दात रहेको छ ।
विस्तृत मुद्राप्रदाय ६.४प्रतिशतले बढेको छ ।
कुल आन्तरिक कर्जा ४.४प्रतिशतले बढेको छ ।
बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाहरूमा रहेकोनिक्षेप ५ प्रतिशतले बढेको छ ।
बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाहरुबाट निजी क्षेत्रमा प्रवाहित कर्जा ४.९ प्रतिशतले बढेको छ ।
कुल ४६ हजार ३४३ ऋणीलाई सहुलियतपूर्ण कर्जा प्रवाह भई रु.७९ अर्ब ७५करोड कर्जा बक्यौता रहेको छ ।
वाणिज्य बैंकहरुको औसत आधार दर २०७६ कात्तिकमा ९.५०प्रतिशत रहेकोमा २०७७ कात्तिकमा ७.५७ प्रतिशत कायम भएको छ ।
२०७७ कात्तिकमा वाणिज्य बैंकहरुको निक्षेपको भारित औसत ब्याजदर ५.३१ प्रतिशत र कर्जाको भारित औसत ब्याजदर ९.५२ प्रतिशत रहेको छ ।
इजाजतप्राप्त बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाहरुको संख्या २०७७ कात्तिक मसान्तमा १४६ कायम भएको छ ।
बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाहरुको शाखा संख्या २०७७ असार मसान्तमा ९७६५ रहेकोमा २०७७ कात्तिक मसान्तमा ९९३७ पुगेको छ ।
नेपाल स्टक एक्सचेन्ज लिमिटेडमा सूचीकृत कम्पनीहरूको संख्या २१२ रहेको छ ।
Monday, December 21, 2020
आर्थिक वर्ष २०७७७८ को चार महिनाको आर्थिक तथा वित्तीय अवस्थाको संक्षिप्त झलक
Friday, December 18, 2020
Bar Chart Race/Bar Chart Animation in R
R is a very powerful software for data visualization. In this post, I present a simple case of how data can be visualized in Bar Chart Race in R. I have used the COVID cases data by country and showed the evolution of COVID cases in the 10 most affected countries during the last 350 days.
rm(list=ls()) # removes the existing objects from the environment.
# library used
library(tidyverse)
library(readxl)
library(dplyr)
library(gganimate)
# setting working directory
setwd('C:/Users/siddhabhatta/Desktop/October31')
# data source : https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/data
# importing data
The data and R script can be downloaded from the link below:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1HkPFE7v4fIx2rOOJnhE1E52rCQlGkigq?usp=sharing
data=read_excel('coviddec14.xlsx')
# first few observations
head(data)
# creating a new date variable with standard date format
data$date<-as.Date(data$dateRep, format="%m/%d/%y")
head(data$date)
# Making the country names short
data$country[data$country=="United_States_of_America"]<-"USA"
data$country[data$country=="United_Kingdom"]<-"UK"
data$country[data$country=="Cases_on_an_international_conveyance_Japan"]<-"Intl_CV_Center_Japan"
#groupoing the data by country and date and finding cumulated total of cases per day
datanew<-data %>% # %>% can be read as then
select(country, cases, date, continent) %>%
group_by(continent, country, date) %>%
summarise(total=sum(cases)) %>%
mutate(cumtotal=cumsum(total))
# prepare data by ranks and filter the top 10 countries
data2=datanew %>%
group_by(date) %>%
arrange(date, -cumtotal) %>%
mutate(rank = 1:n()) %>%
filter(rank <= 10)
# producing the static 350 ggplots
data2 %>%
ggplot()+
aes(xmin = 0 ,
xmax = cumtotal) +
aes(ymin = rank - 0.45,
ymax = rank + 0.45,
y = rank) +
facet_wrap(~ date) +
geom_rect(alpha = .7) +
aes(fill = continent) +
scale_fill_viridis_d(option = "magma",
direction = -1) +
scale_x_continuous(
limits = c(-5000000, 16000000),
breaks = c(-5000000, 0, 4000000, 8000000, 12000000, 16000000)) +
geom_text(col = "darkblue",
hjust = "right",
aes(label = country),
x = -100) +
geom_text(col = "darkblue",
hjust = "right",
aes(label = paste(cumtotal), x=12000000)) +
scale_y_reverse() +
labs(fill = NULL) +
ggtitle("Evolution of Covid-19 Cases")+
labs(x = "Covid Cases") +
labs(y = "Top 10 Countries") +
theme_classic() ->
my_plot
# saves the plot in the object my_plot
# animate the 350 frames by date and save it as p
p<-my_plot +
facet_null() +
geom_text(x = 8000000 , y = -10,
family = "Times",
aes(label = as.character(date)),
size = 12, col = "green") +
aes(group = country) +
transition_time(date)
#Animate p with total 350 frames and 5 frames per second
animate(p, nframes=350, fps=5, width=1000)
Saving the results as gif format
gif<- animate(p, fps = 5, width = 1000, height = 700,
renderer = gifski_renderer("gganim.gif"), end_pause = 15, start_pause = 15)
anim_save("gganim.gif", animation = gif )
Here is the output.
And here is the video explanation.
Thursday, December 17, 2020
Session on 'GDP: Concepts, Measurement, Problems and Uses
I am conducting a live session on 'GDP: Concepts, Measurement, Problems and Uses' on coming Saturday (19 December 2020).
Please, register at
https://forms.gle/
-How GDP is Measured.
-Production, Expenditure and Income Approaches to GDP
-GDP Deflator
-GNI , GNDI and PCI
-Domestic and National Savings
-Where remittances are recorded?
-How economic growth rate is measured?
-GDP at PPP
-Problems in GDP Measurement
-Uses of GDP
Wednesday, December 9, 2020
Line Chart Animation in R
R is a powerful software environment for dealing with graphics. In this post, I illustrate the use of R for producing line chart animation. I will use Nepal Stock exchange data with 2205 daily observations.
The data and R script can be downloaded from here.
# It uses the following packages in R
library(ggplot2)
library(lubridate)
library(dplyr)
library(gganimate)
library(tidyr)
# First set the working directory
setwd("C:/Users/siddhabhatta/Desktop/October31")
# read the data by using the 'readxl' package.
library(readxl)
nepse=read_excel('nepse.xlsx')
head(nepse)
# save date as standard date format
nepse$new_date<-as.Date(nepse$date, format="%m/%d/%y")
head(nepse$new_date)
summary(nepse)
# produce a static line plot
ggplot(data=nepse, aes(x=new_date, y=close))+
geom_line(color="blue", size=1.0)+
theme_classic()+
ggtitle("Nepse Index Movement in Nepal")
# add aesthetics and labels to the plot and save it as an object (p here)
p<-nepse %>%
ggplot(aes(x=new_date, y=close))+
geom_line(color="blue", size=1.0)+
geom_point(size=5, color="green")+
geom_text(aes(label=new_date),color="darkblue", fontface="bold", vjust=-2)+
geom_text(aes(label=close),color="red",fontface="bold", vjust=-4)+
theme_classic()+
theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))+
ggtitle("NEPSE Index Movement of the Past 2205 Days")+
transition_reveal(new_date) # this last line produces the animation by date
animate(p, fps=2, nframes=500, width=1200) # number of frames 500 and frame per second is 2
# you can save the animation in gif format by usng the following line of codes
p1<-animate(p, nframes=500, fps = 2, width = 1200,
renderer = gifski_renderer())
anim_save("animation.gif", animation = p1 )
Here is the output.
Friday, December 4, 2020
How to Estimate the GDP Loss due to COVID-19
Many of my followers have asked a lot of queries about how to estimate the GDP loss due to a crisis such as COVID-19. In this blog, I illustrate a simple but scientific approach to calculate such loss.
To calculate the GDP Loss, we need :
Let us take the case of Nepal.
In the year 2018/19, GDP in nominal terms in Nepal was Rs. 3458793 million.
In the year 2019/20, the economy was expected to follow the trend growth of the past three years i.e. economic growth rate was projected to be 7 percent. With the deflator growth of 6.5 percent (a measure of inflation), the growth rate of nominal GDP would be : ((1*1.07*1.065)-1)*100=13.955
With this, GDP in 2019/20 would be 3458793*1.13955=Rs. 3941467 million. This is the size that Nepali economy would achieve has there no COVID-19. So it is called baseline GDP.
Now, lets us come to the case of COVID-19. If we assume that the growth rate is zero percent, then the growth rate of nominal GDP can be calculated as : 1*1.0*1.065=6.5 percent(1*(1+growth_rate/100)*(1+deflator_inflation/100). As such the actual GDP size in 2019/20 is : 3458793*1.065=3683614 million.
Now, GDP Loss=Baseline GDP-Actual GDP=Rs. 3941467-Rs. 3683614=Rs. 257.826 million or Rs. 257 billion.
Loss in GDP in percent =257826/3941467 =6.54 percent
Again suppose that the economy contracted by 2 percent in 2019/20 instead of growing by zero percent. The size of GDP in 2019/20 would be Rs. 3458973*0.98*1.06489=Rs. 3609568 million.
GDP Loss =3941467-3609568=331491 million or 331 billion.
Loss in GDP in percent =331491/3941467 =8.41 percent .
If we assume that the economic growth rate would be 6 percent had there no corona crisis, GDP loss would be Rs. 221 billion in case zero growth and Rs. 295 billion in case of contraction by 2 percent.
This simple calculation shows that the economy lost between Rs. 221 billion to 331 billion income in 2019/20 which is about 5.7 percent to 8.4 percent of GDP.
Thursday, November 26, 2020
Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal_First_Quarter _2020_21
Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal
(Based on Three Month’s Data Ending Mid-October, 2020/21)
Source : https://www.nrb.org.np/contents/uploads/2020/11/Current-Macroeconomic-and-Financial-Situation-English_Based-on_Three_Months_data_2020.21.pdf
Inflation
Consumer Price Inflation
1. The y-o-y consumer price inflation stood at 3.79 percent in the third month of 2020/21 compared to 6.21 percent a year ago. Food and beverage inflation stood at 5.50 percent whereas non-food and service inflation stood at 2.46 percent in the review month.
External Sector
Merchandise Trade
2. In three months of 2020/21, merchandise exports increased 14.3 percent to Rs.31.05 billion compared to an increase of 14.4 percent in the same period of the previous year. Destination-wise, exports to India and other countries increased 19.4 percent and 7.4 percent respectively whereas exports to China decreased 53.2 percent. Exports of jute goods, polyster yarn and threads, noodles, cardamom, and pashmina among others increased whereas exports of palm oil, pulses, zinc sheet, handicrafts, and skin among others decreased in the review period.
3. In three months of 2020/21, merchandise imports decreased 12.7 percent to Rs.292.27 billion compared to a decrease of 10.3 percent a year ago. Destination-wise, imports from India, China and other countries decreased 6.6 percent, 26.9 percent, and 19.0 percent respectively. Imports of rice, crude soyabean oil, telecommunication equipment and parts, edible oil, and coal among others increased whereas imports of petroleum products, transport equipment and parts, aircraft spareparts, other machinery and parts, and crude palm oil among others decreased in the review period.
4. Total trade deficit narrowed down 15.1 percent to Rs.261.22 billion in three months of 2020/21. Such deficit had contracted 12.0 percent in the same period of the previous year. The export-import ratio increased to 10.6 percent in the review period from 8.1 percent in the same period of the previous year.
Services
5. Net services income remained at a deficit of Rs.10.59 billion in the review period compared to a deficit of Rs.6.05 billion in the same period of the previous year.
6. Under the service account, travel income decreased 91.5 percent to Rs.1.47 billion in the review period which was Rs.17.33 billion in the same period of the previous year.
7. Under the service account, travel payments decreased 74.8 percent to Rs.5.29 billion, including Rs.4.40 billion for education. Such payments were Rs.21.0 billion and Rs.10.18 billion respectively in the same period of the previous year.
Remittances
8. Remittance inflows increased 12.6 percent to Rs.258.86 billion in the review period against a decrease of 5.1 percent in the same period of the previous year. In the US Dollar terms, remittance inflows increased 7.6 percent to 2.18 billion in the review period against a decrease of 4.7 percent in the same period of the previous year.
9. Number of Nepali workers (institutional and individual-new and legalized) taking approval for foreign employment decreased 96.8 percent in the review period. It had decreased 3.7 percent in the same period of the previous year. The number of Nepali workers (Renew entry) taking approval for foreign employment decreased 78.6 percent in the review period. It had decreased 0.9 percent in the same period of the previous year.
Current Account and Balance of Payments
10. The current account remained at a surplus of Rs.34.36 billion in the review period against a deficit of Rs.22.47 billion in the same period of the previous year. In the US Dollar terms, the current account recorded a surplus of 288.2 million in the review period against a deficit of 198.4 million in the same period last year.
11. Balance of Payments (BOP) registered a surplus of Rs.101.09 billion in the review period. Such surplus was Rs.14.43 billion in the same period of the previous year. In the US Dollar terms, the BOP recorded a surplus of 851.0 million in the review period compared to a surplus of 127.8 million in the same period of the previous year.
Foreign Exchange Reserves
12. Gross foreign exchange reserves increased 4.9 percent to Rs.1470.26 billion in mid-October 2020 from Rs.1401.84 billion in mid-July 2020. In the US Dollar terms, the gross foreign exchange reserves increased 7.8 percent to 12.55 billion in mid-October 2020 from 11.65 billion in mid-July 2020.
13. The share of Indian currency in total reserves stood at 23.1 percent in mid-October 2020.
Foreign Exchange Adequacy Indicators
14. Based on the imports of three months of 2020/21, the foreign exchange reserves of the banking sector is sufficient to cover the prospective merchandise imports of 15.6 months, and merchandise and services imports of 14.1 months.
Exchange Rate
15. Nepalese currency vis-à-vis the US Dollar appreciated 2.8 percent in mid-October 2020 from mid-July 2020. It had depreciated 4.1 percent in the same period of the previous year. The buying exchange rate per US Dollar stood at Rs.117.12 in mid-October 2020 compared to Rs.120.37 in mid-July 2020.
Fiscal Situation
Federal Government
Fiscal Deficit/Surplus
16. Fiscal position of the government, based on banking transactions, remained at a surplus of Rs.316.8 million in the review period compared to a surplus of Rs.46.38 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Expenditure and Revenue
17. In review period, total expenditure of the federal government based on banking transactions (excluding direct payments and unrealized cheques) stood at Rs.176.99 billion. Such expenditure was Rs.172.33 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.
18. In review period, revenue collection based on banking transactions (including the amount to be transferred to provincial and local governments) stood at Rs.172.36 billion. Total government revenue was Rs.211.28 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Cash Balance
19. Balance at various accounts of the GoN maintained with NRB remained Rs.213.39 billion (including Provincial government and Local Authorities Account) in mid-October 2020.
Provincial Government
20. In the review period, total resource mobilization of provincial governments wasRs.27.38 billion. The federal government has transferred Rs.18.44 billion as grants and revenue from divisible fund to provincial governments and the provincial governments have mobilized the resource of Rs.8.95 billion from revenue and other receipts in the review period.
Monetary Situation
Money Supply
21. Broad money (M2) expanded 5.6 percent in the review period compared to the growth of 3.2 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year. On y-o-y basis, M2 expanded 20.9 percent in mid-October 2020.
22. The net foreign assets (NFA after adjusting foreign exchange valuation gain/loss) increased Rs. 101.09 billion (7.6 percent) in the review period compared to an increase of Rs.14.43 billion (1.5 percent) in the corresponding period of the previous year.
23. Reserve money increased 1.7 percent in the review period compared to the growth of 2.7 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year. On y-o-y basis, reserve money increased 25.6 percent in mid-October 2020..
Domestic Credit
24. Domestic credit increased 2.8 percent in the re view period compared to the growth of 2.2 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year. On y-o-y basis, domestic credit increased 14.3 percent in mid-October 2020.
Deposit Mobilization
25. Deposits at Banks and Financial Institutions (BFIs) increased 4.9 percent in the review period compared to a growth of 3 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year. On y-o-y basis, deposits at BFIs expanded 20.9 percent in mid-October 2020.
26. The share of demand, saving, and fixed deposits in total deposits stands at 9.1 percent, 32.8 percent and 49.4 percent respectively in mid-October 2020. Such shares were 8.2 percent, 33 percent and 47.8 percent respectively a year ago.
27. The share of institutional deposits in total deposit of BFIs stands at 43.2 percent in mid- October 2020. Such share was 44.8 percent in mid- October 2019.
Credit Disbursement
28. Private sector credit from BFIs increased 4 percent in the review period compared to a growth of 4.3 percent in the corresponding period of previous year. On y-o-y basis, credit to the private sector from BFIs increased 11.7 percent in mid- October 2020.
29. In the review period, private sector credit from commercial banks and development banks increased 4 percent and 5.2 percent respectively while that of finance companies decreased 0.5 percent.
30. Outstanding loan of BFIs to agriculture sector increased 6 percent, industrial production sector increased 1 percent, construction sector increased 1.8 percent, transportation, communication and public sector increased 5.1 percent, wholesale and retail sector increased 4.7 percent and service industry sector increased 6.7 percent in the review period.
31. In the review period, term loan extended by BFIs increased 3.9 percent, overdraft increased 3.7 percent, demand and working capital loan increased 9.6 percent, real estate loan (including residential personal home loan) increased 0.6 percent and margin nature loan increased 17.8 percent while that of trust receipt (import) loan decreased 6.6 percent and hire purchase loan decreased 2.7 percent.
Liquidity Management
32. In the review period, NRB mopped up Rs. 90 billion liquidity including Rs. 60 billion through reverse repo auction and Rs. 30 billion through deposit collection instrument. Rs.30 billion liquidity was mopped up in the corresponding period of the previous year. Rs. 89.32 billion liquidity was injected including Rs. 39.52 billion through repo and Rs. 49.80 billion through standing liquidity facility (SLF) in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Interest Rates
33. The average base rate of commercial banks decreased to 7.73 percent in mid-October 2020 from 9.56 percent a year ago. Weighted average deposit rate and lending rate of commercial banks stood at 5.45 percent and 9.83 percent respectively in mid- October 2020. Such rates were 6.75 percent and 11.98 percent respectively a year ago.
Merger and Acquisition
34. After introduction of merger and acquisition policy aimed at strengthening financial stability, the number of BFIs involved in this process reached 207. Out of which, the license of 157 BFIs was revoked thereby forming 50 BFIs.
Financial Access
35. Of the total 753 local levels, commercial banks extended their
branches at 748 levels as of mid-October 2020. The number of local levels
having commercial bank branches was 741 a year ago
(Table 3).
36. The total number of BFIs licensed by NRB decreased to 146 in mid- October 2020 (Table 4). As of mid-October 2020, 27 commercial banks, 19 development banks, 21 finance companies, 78 microfinance financial institutions and 1 infrastructure development bank are in operation. The number of BFIs branches reached 9903 in mid-October 2020 from 9765 in mid-July 2020.
Capital Market
37. NEPSE index stood at 1562.5 points in mid-Oct 2020 compared to 1137.8 points in mid-Oct 2019. Such index was 1362.4 in mid-July 2020.
38. Stock market capitalization in mid-Oct 2020 stood Rs. 2082.58 billion compared to Rs. 1792.76 billion in mid-Jul 2020.
39. Number of companies listed at NEPSE stood 209, out of which 143 are Bank and Financial Institutions (BFIs) and insurance companies, 33 hydropower companies, 19 manufacturing and processing industries, 4 hotels, 4 trading companies and 6 others. The number of companies listed at NEPSE was 212 in mid-July 2020.
40. Share of BFIs and insurance companies in stock market capitalization is 75.4 percent. Such share for hydropower companies is 6.6 percent, manufacturing and processing industries 3.5 percent, hotels 1.1 percent, trading companies 0.3 percent and the share of other sector companies is 13.1 percent.