CBS Revised the Growth Rate of Nepal

CBS Nepal has revised the growth rate of Nepal for 2019/20 on March 4, 2021. According to the revised estimates, the economy contracted by 1.88 percent at producer's price (by 1.99 percent at basic prices) in 2019/20 which is about 4 percentage points lower than the estimates released in April 2020.  

In the previous year, economic growth rate stood at 6.66 percent. The contraction of the economy shows that COVID-19 has severe impact on economic activities in the country. 

Accommodation and food service activities, transport, trade and manufacturing experienced the worst impact of the crisis. In 2019/20, output of accommodation and food service activities contracted by 25.7 percent followed by transport and storage (13.4 percent), and trade (10.7 percent).  

On a quarterly basis, GDP contracted by 15.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019/20. This is due to the restrictive measures adopted by the government of Nepal to contain the spread of corona virus. Even in the first quarter of 2020/21, the economic activities have not returned to normal. Quarterly GDP in the first quarter contracted by 4.5 percent. 

Siddha Raj Bhatta

Session on 'GDP: Concepts, Measurement, Problems and Uses

I am conducting a live session on 'GDP: Concepts, Measurement, Problems and Uses' on coming Saturday (19 December 2020).

Please, register at https://forms.gle/tpPr4UjxbaSmhRmP6 to participate in the session.

Or join the You Tube Live session at the link provided below:

Link : https://youtu.be/O_KPLHnQgf0

Please, share the link to your friends so that they may benefit from the session.

 

We will cover :

-GDP and Associated Concepts
-How GDP is Measured.
-Production, Expenditure and Income Approaches to GDP

-Which method is appropriate for Nepal ?

-How GDP is measured in Nepal?

-GDP as a measure of the size of the economy 

-GDP at producer's/market price and GDP at basic price

-GDP at current prices and GDP at constant prices 

-Structure/Composition of GDP

-Sectoral contribution to economic growth.

-Why GDP is an important indicator for the economy?
-GDP Deflator
-GNI , GNDI and PCI
-Domestic and National Savings
-Where remittances are recorded?
-How economic growth rate is measured?
-GDP at PPP
-Problems in GDP Measurement
-Uses of GDP 

If you have any questions, regarding GDP, please, do not hesitate to put them during registration.

Nepal's Paddy Economics

  Nepal's Paddy Economics

Paddy is one of the most important staple crop in Nepal. It plays a significant role in domestic production as well as meeting the calorie requirements of Nepali people. Here are few facts about paddy economy in Nepal.

1. Paddy accounts for a fifth of the agricultural output in Nepal.

Paddy production accounts for 20.7 percent of agricultural output and 60 percent of total cereal production in the country. The contribution of other major food crops viz. wheat and maize account for about 7 percent in agricultural output each and 20 percent in cereal production each. 

Composition of Agricultural Output (in percent)

2. The contribution of paddy in GDP is approximately 6 percent.

Being the most important food crop of the country, paddy production can largely influence the growth of GDP. The contribution of paddy itself in GDP amounts to almost 5.6 percent as of 2018/19. This implies that about 18 percent increase in paddy production can push the real GDP growth by one percentage point. 

 3.Paddy production is highly dependent on monsoon and is largely volatile with the monsoon cycles.

Paddy production has largely fluctuated following the monsoon cycles. During the last five years, production of paddy has increased by 3.5 percent on average. Such production has been estimated to decline by 1.05 percent in 2019/20.                                                                                                                                                   

Source: Ministry of Agricultural Development, Nepal

4. Paddy yield has increased over time but still lower than the regional average.

Paddy yield has increased over the last four years continuously by an average of 4.8 percent. Such yield has reached 3.80 metric tonne per hectare in Nepal which is below the average of South Asia (4.0 MT/HA)  and that of Asia (4.8 MT/HA). The world average of rice yield is 4.7 MT/HA. 

The countries with highest paddy yield are  Australia (10.4 mt/ha), Egypt(8.8 mt/ha) and USA(8.6 mt/ha). In  Asia, such yield is 7.0 in China, 4.7 in Bangladesh, 4.3 in Bhutan, 3.9 in India and 3.8 in Pakistan. 

 5. Nepal is one of the top 20 paddy producer in the world. 

In 2018, world output of paddy was 782 million metric tonnes out of which 5.2 million metric tone (0.7 percent of the world output) was produced in Nepal. Top producers of paddy in the world are China, India, Indonesia Bangladesh and Vietnam.

Source : FAO Statistics

6. In Nepal, paddy is grown mostly in Province 2, Province 1 and Province 5.

In 2018/19,  Province 2 contributed to the total paddy production by the highest 26 percent followed by province 1 and province 7. The contribution of  Province 6 in paddy production is just 2 percent only.

Source : Ministry of Agricultural Development, Nepal, 2019

7. In terms of districts, Jhapa, Morang and Kailali top the list of paddy production. 

The districts with largest paddy plantation area are Morang, Jhapa, Kapilbastu, Kailali and Rupendehi. These five districts cover 25 percent of the paddy plantation area of Nepal. On the other hand, districts with largest paddy production are Jhapa, Morang, Kailali, Rupendehi and Bara. These five districts accounts about 28 percent of the paddy production in Nepal. 

8. Bhaktapur has the highest paddy yield and Mugu has the lowest. 

Bhaktapur has an average paddy yield of 4.9 mt/ha followed by Dhading (4.4 mt/ha) and Nuwakot(4.2 mt/ha). Dolpa, Humla and Mugu has an average yield of less than 2 mt/ha. 

9. Nepal is a net importer of rice at present in contrary to its performance up to 1990's.

Nepal was sufficient in rice until 1990. In fact it was a net exporter of rice. Now, the country has become a net rice importer and the trade balance in the item is deteriorating each year.

Source: United States Department of Agriculture

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आर्थिक तथा बैकिङ्ग ज्ञान : जिज्ञाशा न. २१ : Why GDP is an important indicator of an economy?

Why GDP is an important indicator of an economy?

GDP is an important macroeconomic indicator of an economy because : 

•   GDP shows the productive capacity of the economy.
• Rising GDP implies rising employment opportunities.
• With an increase in GDP, the economy can earn foreign exchange through increased exports.
• Higher level of per capita GDP implies a better living standard.
• Per capita GDP and economic growth help make a comparison of the economies at international level.
• Several variables are compared in relation to GDP. So GDP is called denominator variable. For example, trade GDP ratio, revenue GDP ratio, tax GDP ratio, debt GDP ratio, expenditure GDP ratio, investment GDP ratio, etc.

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यो पनि पढ्नुहोस 

आर्थिक तथा बैकिङ्ग ज्ञान : जिज्ञाशा न. १८: नेपालमा कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनको संरचना कस्तो छ ?

आर्थिक तथा बैकिङ्ग ज्ञान : जिज्ञाशा न. १ : नेपालको GDP मा रेमिटान्स को योगदान कति छ ?

आर्थिक तथा बैकिङ्ग ज्ञान : जिज्ञाशा न. ३ : कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनको वृद्धिदरलाइ आधारभूत मुल्य वा उपभोक्ता मूल्य /उत्पादक मुल्य कसका आधारमा ब्यक्त गर्न बढी उपयुक्त हुन्छ?

आर्थिक तथा बैकिङ्ग ज्ञान : जिज्ञाशा न. २० : नेपालमा कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन गणना कसरी गरिन्छ ?

आर्थिक तथा बैकिङ्ग ज्ञान : जिज्ञाशा न. २० : नेपालमा कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन गणना कसरी गरिन्छ ?

नेपालमा कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन गणना(GDP Estimation in Nepal)

नेपालमा मूख्यतः कुल मूल्य अभिवृद्धि विधिबाट कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनको गणना गर्ने गरिन्छ । यसका लागि अर्थतन्त्रलाई विभिन्न १५ बटा उप क्षेत्रहरुमा विभाजन गरिएको छ : 
 १.कृषि तथा बन,
२. मत्स्यपालन,
३. खानी तथा उत्खनन,
४. औधोगिक उत्पादन,
५. बिजुली ग्यास तथा पानी,
६. निर्माण,
७. थोक तथा खुद्रा ब्यापार,
८. हाटेल तथा रेस्टोरेन्ट,
९. यातायात, भण्डारण तथा संचार,
१०. वित्तिय मध्यस्तता,
११. रियल स्टेट सम्बन्धी क्रियाकलापहरु,
१२. सार्वजनिक प्रशासन तथा सुरक्षा ,
१३. शिक्षा,
१४. स्वास्थ्य तथा सामाजिक कार्य र
१५. अन्य सामुदायिक सामाजिक तथा ब्यक्तिगत क्रियाकलापहरु

यी १५ वटै क्षेत्रहरुको उत्पादनबाट ती क्षेत्रहरुले उपयोग गरेको कच्चा पदार्थ (मध्यवर्ति उपभोग) घटाइसकेपछि ती क्षेत्रहरुको मूल्य अभिवृद्धि आउदछ । यस्तो मूल्य अभिवृद्धिहरुको जोडफलबाट कुल मूल्य अभिवृद्धि (GVA) निकालिन्छ । यसरी प्राप्त (GVA) बाट अप्रत्यक्ष रुपमा मापन गरिएको वित्तीय मध्यस्तता (FISIM) घटाउदा आधारभूत मुल्यमा कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन (GDP at basic prices) प्राप्त हुन जान्छ ।

 आधारभूत मुल्यमा ब्यक्त कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनमा बस्तुमा लगाइएको कर जोडी अनुदान घटाउने हो भने बजार मुल्यमा ब्यक्त कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन प्राप्त हुन जान्छ।
 उदाहरणका लागि नेपालको आ व २०७५/७६ को कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनको गणना हेरौ :

GDP Estimation at Current Prices for 2075/76
		Rs. millions
	Industrial Classification	Gross Output (GO)	Intermediate Consumption (IC)	Value Added (=GO-IC)
1	Agriculture and forestry	1,076,244	264,898	811,347
2	Fishing	16,425	1,764	14,661
3	Mining and quarrying	23,312	4,804	18,508
4	Manufacturing	610,162	438,972	171,190
5	Electricty gas and water	100,145	61,983	38,162
6	Construction	483,411	245,691	237,720
7	Wholesale and retail trade	527,242	87,313	439,930
8	Hotels and restaurants	196,392	133,576	62,817
9	Transport, storage and communications	380,607	159,254	221,353
10	Financial intermediation	253,831	60,362	193,469
11	Real estate, renting and business activities	465,244	112,167	353,077
12	Public administration and defence	103,520	20,545	82,975
13	Education	285,023	68,917	216,106
14	Health and social work	86,030	32,536	53,494
15	Other community, social and personal service activities	188,929	42,507	146,421
	Gross Value Added			3,061,230
	Less FISIM			128486
	GDP at basic Prices			2,932,744
	Add Taxes on Products			533,962
	Less Subsidies on Products			2,387
	GDP			3,464,319

 श्रोत : केन्द्रीय तथ्यांक बिभाग

माथिको तालिकामा देखाए झैँ उत्पादन बाट मध्यवर्ती उपभोग घटाएर उक्त क्षेत्रको मूल्य अभिवृद्धि निकालिन्छ।  जस्तै कृषि क्षेत्रको मूल्य अभिवृद्धि =१०७६ अर्ब -२६५ अर्ब =८११ अर्ब
यसैगरी अन्य १४ वटा क्षेत्रको समेत मूल्य अभिवृद्धि गणना गरिसके पछि १५ वटै क्षेत्रको मूल्य अभिवृद्धि जोडेर कुल मूल्य अभिवृद्धि निकालिन्छ जुन माथिको तालिकामा ३०६१ अर्ब २३ करोड छ।
कुल मूल्य अभिवृद्धि प्राप्त भैसकेपछी उक्त आंकडा वाट अप्रतक्ष्य रुपमा मापन गरिएको वित्तीय मध्यस्तता रु १२८ अर्ब ४९ करोड घटाउदा आधारभूत मुल्यमा कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन रु. २९३२ अर्ब ७४ करोड प्राप्त  हुन गएको छ।
यसरी प्राप्त कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनमा बस्तुमा लगाइएको कर रकम रु ५३३ अर्ब ९६ करोड जोडेर २ अर्ब ३९ करोड अनुदान घटाउदा बजार मुल्यमा रु ३४६४ अर्ब ३२ करोड बराबर कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन कायम हुन गएको छ।  

खर्च तथा आय सम्बन्धी अनुमानहरु

कुल मूल्य अभिवृद्धिबाट कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनको मापन प्राप्त भइसके पछि खर्च विधिमा हुने विभिन्न खर्चका अनुमानहरु तथा आय विधिमा हुने आय वितरणका अनुमानहरु समेत तयार पारिन्छ । खर्च विधिमा उपभोग खर्च, कुल लगानी, निर्यात तथा आयात सम्वन्धी अनुमानहरु त्यार पारिन्छ । उदाहरणका लागि आर्थिक वर्ष २०७५/७६ मा उपभोगको कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनसंगको अनुपात ७९.५ प्रतिशत, कुल लगानीको कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनसंगको अनुपात ६२.३ प्रतिशत, निर्यातको कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनसंगको अनुपात ९.० प्रतिशत तथा आयातको कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनसंगको अनुपात ५०.८ प्रतिशत रहने अनुमान गरिएको छ । त्यसै गरी आय विधि अन्तर्गत तलब भत्ता तथा ज्याला, सञ्चालन आय/मिश्रित आय तथा खुद अप्रत्यक्ष कर सम्वन्धी अनुमानहरु तयार पारिन्छ । उदाहरणका लागि आर्थिक वर्ष २०७५/७६ मा तलब भत्ता तथा ज्यालाको कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनसंगको अनुपात ३५.८ प्रतिशत, सञ्चालन आय/मिश्रित आयको कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनसंगको अनुपात ४८.८ प्रतिशत र खुद अप्रत्यक्ष करको कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनसंगको अनुपात १५.४ प्रतिशत रहने अनुमान गरिएको छ ।
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यो पनि पढ्नुहोस 

आर्थिक तथा बैकिङ्ग ज्ञान : जिज्ञाशा न. १८: नेपालमा कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनको संरचना कस्तो छ ?

आर्थिक तथा बैकिङ्ग ज्ञान : जिज्ञाशा न. १ : नेपालको GDP मा रेमिटान्स को योगदान कति छ ?

आर्थिक तथा बैकिङ्ग ज्ञान : जिज्ञाशा न. ३ : कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनको वृद्धिदरलाइ आधारभूत मुल्य वा उपभोक्ता मूल्य /उत्पादक मुल्य कसका आधारमा ब्यक्त गर्न बढी उपयुक्त हुन्छ?