आर्थिक तथा बैकिङ्ग ज्ञान : जिज्ञाशा न. २६ : नेपालमा मौद्रिक नीतिको प्रभावकारिता कस्तो रहेको छ ?

नेपालमा मौद्रिक नीतिको प्रभावकारिता कस्तो रहेको छ ?

मौद्रिक नीतिको प्रमुख उदेश्य अर्थतन्त्रमा आर्थिक स्थायित्व कायम राख्दै वित्तीय पहुँचमा अभिवृद्धि गर्ने तथा आर्थिक वृद्धि प्राप्त गर्नमा सहयोग गर्नु रहेको हुन्छ । नेपालको मौद्रिक नीतिले लिएका उदेश्यहरुका आधारमा विश्लेषण गर्दा मौद्रिक नीति धेरै हदसम्म सफल भएको देखिन्छ ।
क) मुल्य स्थायित्व: विगत तीन वर्ष यताको मुद्रास्फीति राष्ट्र बैंकले तोकेको सीमाभित्र रहेको छ । आर्थिक वर्ष २०७४/७५ मा मुद्रास्फीति ४.२ प्रतिशत रहेकोमा आ.व. २०७५/७६ मा ४.६ प्रतिशत रहेको छ । यसरी मुद्रास्फीति नियन्त्रण गर्ने कार्यमा मौद्रिक नीति विगत केही वर्षयता केहि हद सम्म सफल भएको देखिन्छ ।
ख) बाह्य क्षेत्र स्थायित्व: भुक्तान संतुलनमा धेरै ठुलो घाटा नभएको,  विदशी मुदा्रको पर्याप्त रिजर्भ रहेको तथा विनिमय दरमा ठुलो उतारचढाव नभएको अवस्थालाई बाह्य क्षेत्र स्थायित्वको रुपमा लिन सकिन्छ । नेपालमा विगतमा धेरै वर्ष भुक्तान संतुलन नाफामा रहने गरेको भएतापनि आ.व. २०७५/७६ मा भने आयातमा भएको उच्च विस्तारका कारण केही घाटामा जाने देखिएको छ । तथापि बैंकिङ्ग क्षेत्रसंग आयात धान्नका लागि पर्याप्त विदेशी विनिमय रहेको अवस्था छ ।
ग) बैंकिङ्क पहुँच तथा तथा  वित्तीय क्षेत्र स्थायित्व: नेपालमा बैंकिङ्ग पहुँचमा विस्तार हुदै गएको छ । मुलुकभरमा ८ हजार भन्दा बढी बैंक तथा वित्तीय संख्याका शाखा संचालनमा रहेका छन्  भने ती संस्थामा खुलेका खाता संख्या २ करोड ७९ लाख पुगेका छन् । यसका साथै राष्ट्र बैंकको प्रभावकारी नियमन तथा सुपरिवेक्षणका कारण नेपालको वित्तीय क्षेत्रले कुनै ठुलो प्रणालीगत समस्या बेहोर्नुपरेको छैन ।
घ) सुरक्षित भुक्तानी प्रणालीको विकास: नेपालमा भुक्तानी प्रणालीको विकासका लागि मौद्रिक नीतिले आवश्यक पूर्वाधार निर्माणमा जोड दिदै आएको छ । भुक्तानी प्रणालीको विकासका लागि इलेक्ट्रोनिक चेक क्लियरिङ, इन्टरनेट बैंकिङ, मोबाइल बैंकिङ्ग, आई.पि.एस. , RTGS जस्ता भुक्तानी प्रविधिका माध्यहरुको विकास हुदै गएको छ ।
ङ) आर्थिक वृद्धि: विगत तीन वर्षयता नेपालले ५ प्रतिशत भन्दा माथिको आर्थिक वृद्धि प्राप्त गरेको छ । आर्थिक वृद्धिका लागि चाहिने कर्जा उपलब्धताका लागि नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकले प्रभावकारी रुपमा तरलता व्यवस्थापन गर्दे आएको छ ।
संक्षेपमा  भन्नुपर्दा विगत तिन वर्ष यताको स्थिती हेर्ने हो भने नीतिले आफुले राखेका धेरैजस्तो उदेश्यहरु प्राप्त गर्न सफल भएको छ ।  यस अर्थमा मौद्रिक नीति धेरै हदसम्म प्रभावकारी रहेको छ भन्न सकिने प्रशस्त आधारहरु छन् ।

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Nepalese Monetary Policy 2019/20

Major Provisions in Nepalese Monetary Policy 2019/20

• Consumer price inflation to be contained within 6 percent.
• Maintain foreign exchange reserves sufficient to cover the prospective imports of goods and services for at least 7 months in 2019/20. 
• Facilitate the economic growth of around 8.5 percent as targeted by the annual budget of the government of Nepal. 
• Growth of broad money (M2) set at 18 percent. 
• Domestic credit and private sector credit growth rates are 24 percent and 21 percent respectively. 
• Nominal anchor of monetary policy : currency peg with IC. 
• Operating target of the policy: interbank rate of the BFIs. 
• The band for the interest rate corridor revised downwards to 3-6 percent from 3.5 to 6.5 percent. 
• Policy rate reduced to 4.5 percent from 5 percent.
•  CRR kept unchanged at 4 percent. 
• SLR kept unchanged at 10 percent for commercial banks, 8 percent for development banks and 7 percent for finance companies. 
• Bank rate reduced to 6 percent from 6.5 percent. 
• Refinance rates reduced. 
• Sources and conditions of external borrowing by the BFIs extended. 
• Provision for foreign currency fixed deposits with at least 2-year maturity from institutional foreign depositors and Non-Resident Nepali introduced. 
• Limit for deposit mobilization from a single institution by the BFIs reduced to 10 percent of their total domestic deposit liabilities. 
• Commercial banks required to issue debentures of at least 25 percent of their paid-up capital by mid-July 2020. 
• Policy provision for the mobilization of gold held by Nepali citizens as bank deposits. 
• Requirements of priority sector credit for the BFIs kept unchanged. 
• Requirement for deprived sector credit kept unchanged at 5 percent of total credit. 
• Spread rate between the lending and deposit rate to be brought down to 4.4 percent by mid-July 2020. 
• Incentives for merger and acquisition provided. 
• Provision to regulate and supervise the Systemically Important Banks (SIBs). 
• No need to take approval from NRB to open branchless banking centers in those wards where there is no bank branch. 
• Standard for Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) to be issued. 
• Provision to be made for the Nepali BFIs to open branches abroad. 
• Basel II will be fully implemented in development banks and finance companies. 
• MFIs will be allowed to open one branch in sub-metropolitan city or district headquarter only after opening one branch in the municipality and rural municipalities excluding the metropolitan, sub-metropolitan and district headquarters. 
• MFIs required to disburse one-third of total credit to agriculture sector. 
• Incentives for the merger and acquisition of the MFIs. 
• Policy of gradually reducing cash transactions. 
• Real Time Gross Settlement system (RTGS) will be brought into operation within the current fiscal year. 
• Payment service providers will be encouraged to expand financial access in remote areas. 
• No additional fees from customers in the POS transactions. 
• BFIs required to keep Cash Deposit Machine (CDM) for collecting deposits. 
• Provision to refund 10 percent of the value added tax (VAT) stated on the invoice directly to the payer's bank account if the payment is made through card or electronic means. 
• Provision to be made to regulate and supervise the licensed institutions involved in foreign currency transactions. 
• Necessary provision to be made to regulate overseas foreign exchange expenses on studies and group travels. 
• Separate foreign currency exchange counter facilities by the BFIS at major tourist destinations. 
• Read the monetary policy in detail below.

आर्थिक तथा बैकिङ्ग ज्ञान : जिज्ञाशा न. १३ : How does the banking system create credit in an economy?

Credit creation is a procedure whereby the banks and financial institutions create loans and advances from the public deposits and other sources available to them. The amount of money deposited for the first time in the bank account is called primary deposit. The bank lends to others from that amount which can come back to other banks in the form of secondary deposits. Creation of such secondary deposits can continue for a long time with the creation of newer and newer loans from such secondary deposits. With this process, the banking system can create a large amount of credit with the fixed amount of money deposited in the banks initially.

We can explain the process of credit creation in two different scenarios below: 

 (i) Under Single Bank System:

To explain how the banking system with a single commercial bank creates credit, suppose that there is a single bank‘Bank X’ and the cash reserve ratio fixed by the central bank is 20 percent and also assume that the bank does not keep any other cash balance with itself.

Now, when a customer say ‘Customer A’ comes to the bank to make a deposit of Rs. 100 at his/her account, it is called primary deposit. Out of that deposit, the bank maintains a reserve of Rs. 20 at the central bank to fulfill the CRR  requirement and can lend the remaining Rs. 80 to some customer say ‘Customer B’. The bank deposits Rs. 80 in B’s account which increases the deposit of the banking system by Rs. 80. It is called derivative deposit because such a deposit comes out of the original deposit of Rs. 100. Even if B withdraws that money, that will ultimately return to the same bank as there are no other banks in the system. The bank now has to maintain 20 percent of the new deposit Rs. 80 (i.e. Rs. 16) as cash reserve ratio and can lend the remaining to another customer. This process continues until the primary deposit of Rs. 100 is all used up in maintaining the cash reserve ratio.

The whole process of credit creation can be explained below.

Step	Deposit (D)	Required Reserves (r.D)	Credit Creation (C)	Deposit	Required Reserves	Credit Creation
I	100	0.2*100=20	0.8*100=80	D	r.D	(1-r)D
II	80	0.2*80=16	0.8*80=64	(1-r)D	r(1-r)D	(1-r)2 D
III	64	0.2*64=12.8	0.8*64=51.2	(1-r)2 D	r(1-r)2 D	(1-r)3 D
..	…	…	…	…	…	….
..	…	…	…	…	…	….
..	…	…	…	…	…	….
Total       500		100	400	D/r	D	(1-r)/r)D

The total credit creation is: (1-r)D+(1-r)² D+(1-r)³ D+(1-r)⁴ D+…….and so on

=D{(1-r)+ (1-r)² +(1-r)³+(1-r)³+……….}

Here, the series inside the bracket is a declining geometric series with infinite terms, its summation can be calculated as: S = a/1-r, Where a=first term and r = common ratio

= {1-r/(1-(1-r)} D

= {1-r/r} D

Credit Creation = {1-r/r} D

Credit Creation=Credit Multiplier (1-r/r) × Primary Deposit (D)

Thus, the total credit creation power depends on the cash reserve ratio. If the CRR ratio is reduced to 10 percent, total credit creation would be 100/0.1= Rs. 1000

The above system works perfectly only when the following conditions are fulfilled:

1. People do not keep cash balances with themselves.

2. The bank need not keep any extra cash balances with them.

But in most cases, the above two assumptions do not hold as such the credit creation capacity of the banking system will be smaller than that given by the above mechanism.

(ii) Multi Banking System

The process of credit creation under multiple bank system differs from that of single bank system basically in one respect - the derivative deposits may no longer return to the bank where primary deposit was made. It is because the public may choose other banks to keep the money which is withdrawn from the loan account of a bank. Whatever the case, the total volume of credit generated remains unaffected. For example the first bank provides a loan of Rs. 80 to customer A, out of the deposit Rs. 100 (CRR is 20 percent).  Now, wherever the customer deposits that money (in the same bank or the other, that amount can create a loan of Rs. 64 only because the rest Rs. 16 should be kept in the form of required reserves. Thus, it does not matter for the banking system as whole where the deposits are made. The total credit creation is again the same as in the above case.

This can be explained with the following example:

Bank	Customer Making Deposit	Deposit (D)	Required Reserves (r.D)	Credit Creation (C)	Customer taking Credit
I	Customer A	100	0.2*100= 20	0.8*100=80	Customer B
II	Customer B	80	0.2*80= 16	0.8*80=  64	Customer C
III	Customer C	64	0.2*64= 12.8	0.8*64=51.2	Customer D
..	…	…	…	…	…
..	…	…	…	…	…
..	…	…	…	…	…
Total		500	100	400

Factors Affecting Credit Creation

a) Amount of Deposit

Higher the cash collection of the commercial banks in the form of public deposits, the more will be the credit creation. Deposit collection depends on a lot of factors like the remittance inflow in the country, interest rate offered by the banks, rate of inflation, central bank policies regarding money supply, rate of capital and investment inflow in the country, etc.

(b) CRR

The cash reserve ratio has a negative impact on the credit creation capacity of the banking system. When CRR is raised, the amount available for lending from the banks is automatically reduced as such the whole credit creation process shrinks down.

(b) Excess Reserves

Besides the cash reserve ratio, banks maintain extra cash reserve to fulfill the transactions needs of depositors and to ensure the safety and liquidity of commercial banks. In this ratio rises, the credit creation capacity of the banking system is reduced and vice versa.

(d) Leakages

The amount withdrawn from the bank may not completely return to the banking system as public may some keep cash with themselves. It reduces the credit creation capacity of the banks.

(e) Availability of Borrowers, Securities and Proper Economic Climate

For the credit creation process to work perfectly, the banking system should be willing to lend all of their available resources, the individuals should be willing to take loans and there must be proper economic climate to take credit. For instance, if the economy is in recession, the individuals will not take loans as such the credit creation principle does not realize fully.